Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been telling television viewers that the “average tax refund” is up 22 percent, a headline-friendly figure that grabbed attention in a CNBC appearance. The IRS’s own early-season dataset tells a more modest story so far, with the average refund up 10.9 percent as of February 6, 2026, to $2,290 and 7.403 million refunds issued. As filers sort through a new law known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBB, the gap between political messaging and official statistics raises practical questions about what households should really expect.
Current Refund Trends
According to the IRS’s official Filing Season Statistics for week ending Feb. 6, 2026, the average refund stood at $2,290, up from $2,065 at the same point in the prior year, an increase of 10.9%. The same dataset shows that the agency had issued 7.403 million refunds worth a combined $16.954 billion, providing the primary snapshot behind the early-season buzz about bigger checks.
The IRS figures also distinguish between overall refunds and those delivered by direct deposit. In the same weekly report, the agency said the average direct-deposit refund was $2,388, a bit higher than the overall average, reflecting that many early filers submit electronically and choose bank delivery. The IRS keeps these weekly tables organized in a historical series, and its index of filing statistics by year links back to the Feb. 6, 2026 table to make clear that these numbers come from a consistent, recurring reporting format.
Bessent’s Perspective
The political narrative around those numbers took a turn when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box and asserted that the “average” refund was up about 22 percent. A follow-up report that summarized Bessent’s remarks highlighted that he was using the 22 percent figure to signal that taxpayers could expect noticeably fatter refunds under the new rules.
Yet that same coverage also acknowledged a key caveat. The Economic Times article noted that Bessent did not spell out what timeframe or baseline he was using, while the IRS weekly tables showed only a 10.9% increase in the average refund at that point in the season. Another analysis that compared Bessent’s 22% claim with IRS data likewise pointed to the 10.9% figure and flagged the uncertainty over whether the secretary was referencing a different slice of returns or making a broader projection for the full season.
OBBB Tax Changes Driving Refunds
Behind both the official data and Bessent’s talking point sits a major new tax law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The statutory text of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is collected in a Primary PDF and XML compilation that serves as the main access point for the bill’s legislative language, including changes to deductions and credits that could affect 2025 tax year refunds filed in 2026. That legislative record is the backbone for later IRS guidance on how provisions should be applied on individual returns.
To help taxpayers and preparers navigate what changed, the IRS built an index of OBBB-related provisions that organizes topics by how they affect workers, families, businesses, health care and other categories. A separate IRS fact sheet on “tax deductions for working Americans and seniors” under OBBB explains mechanics for several new write-offs, including the “No Tax on Tips” provision that applies starting with the 2025 tax year filed in 2026. In that document, the IRS describes how No Tax on Tips interacts with W-2 wage reporting and outlines the documentation workers and seniors need to substantiate the deduction, which can translate into larger refunds for eligible filers.
Filing Season Timeline and Delays
The calendar for when those benefits show up is largely set by the IRS’s operational plan for the 2026 season. In its official launch announcement for Tax Year 2025 returns, the agency said it expected about 164 m individual returns and reminded filers that the standard deadline is April 15. The same notice encouraged electronic filing and direct deposit and repeated the agency’s long-standing benchmark that most refunds are issued within 21 days of the IRS accepting a return, assuming there are no errors or extra reviews.
Timing is more complicated for low and moderate income workers who claim the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit. Separate IRS guidance that explains the EITC and ACTC hold notes that refunds containing either EITC or ACTC face a legally required delay, with “Where’s My Refund” status updates expected to appear by Feb. 21 for most early filers and many direct-deposit refunds not arriving until around March 2, 2026. That lag means some of the households most affected by refundable credits and OBBB changes will not show up in the earliest IRS refund averages.
Why Early Data May Mislead
Early-season averages tend to tell only part of the story because of who files first and how the refund calendar works. A Nonpartisan brief from the Bipartisan Policy Center explains that refunds are typically smaller at the very start of the season, then jump in mid February when EITC and refundable Child Tax Credit refunds can be released, and finally drift as more complex returns arrive later. The same analysis points out that the IRS operates under resource constraints and leadership churn, factors that can influence processing times and make year over year comparisons tricky.
That pattern helps reconcile why the IRS’s Feb. 6 average showed a 10.9% increase while Bessent cited 22%. The IRS’s own historical tables show that early weeks capture a narrow slice of filers, often those with straightforward wage income and no major credits, while the influx of EITC and CTC returns later in February can shift both the average size and the distribution of refunds. Analysts who reviewed the Feb. 6 dataset have therefore cautioned against treating the initial 10.9% bump as a final verdict on how generous OBBB will look by the end of the season.
What Filers Should Expect and Do
For individual households, the practical question is less about 10.9% versus 22% and more about how personal circumstances intersect with the new law and IRS processes. The IRS’s own advice in its filing season launch stresses that e-filing and direct deposit usually lead to faster refunds, a message that aligns with the higher average refund reported for direct deposits in the Feb. 6 statistics. For anyone claiming EITC or ACTC, the dedicated page on when to expect your refund outlines how the Feb. 21 “Where’s My Refund” updates and March 2 payout window can affect cash flow, even if the ultimate refund amount is larger.
OBBB adds another layer, since new deductions can boost refunds only if filers actually qualify and document them correctly. The IRS’s OBBB provisions index is designed to help workers, families and seniors verify which parts of the law the agency recognizes and how to claim them, while the fact sheet on No Tax on Tips and related changes spells out the W-2 references and recordkeeping the IRS expects. For filers trying to square Bessent’s optimism with the IRS’s more modest early averages, the safest assumption is that some refunds will indeed be larger under OBBB, but the size and timing will depend heavily on individual eligibility, when a return is filed and whether it includes credits subject to statutory delays.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
Julian Harrow specializes in taxation, IRS rules, and compliance strategy. His work helps readers navigate complex tax codes, deadlines, and reporting requirements while identifying opportunities for efficiency and risk reduction. At The Daily Overview, Julian breaks down tax-related topics with precision and clarity, making a traditionally dense subject easier to understand.
