New federal data and central bank research show that the job market has cooled for recent U.S. college graduates, tightening the search for entry-level roles just as a new class leaves campus. The squeeze is especially severe for graduates in lower-paying majors, who are entering a weak hiring cycle with smaller financial cushions than peers in high-earning fields. That combination is reshaping which degrees look risky as students and families weigh the cost of a four-year education.
The U.S. Census Bureau has released fresh earnings data by field of degree, while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s work on recent graduates is being cited in new analysis of hiring trends. Together with labor statistics from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and employer behavior tracked by major job platforms, the evidence points to a brutal market for some majors and a widening gap between winners and losers among college degrees.
Data show a split between high and low-earning majors
The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey provides one of the clearest snapshots of how sharply earnings differ by major. In a detailed table package on educational attainment and pay, the agency breaks out median annual earnings by specific bachelor’s fields of study, including breakdowns by sex, age, race and attainment, according to the American Community Survey Detailed Field of Degree and Median Annual Earnings Table Package. That data underpins a Census press release describing how some majors cluster at the top of the income distribution while others sit near the bottom.
In that release, the Census Bureau highlights that median earnings reach $100,000 or more for fields such as computer science, engineering and economics, while education, fine arts and social work sit under $60,000 in median pay, according to the official Census earnings by field of degree tables. For graduates in the lower band, the combination of modest salaries and student debt leaves far less room to absorb a stretch of unemployment or part-time work. The gap means that when the job market turns colder, majors already associated with lower pay feel the stress sooner and more intensely.
Hiring for recent grads has cooled sharply
The labor market chill is not just anecdotal. A detailed article on U.S. graduates entering a “freezing” labor market ties together metrics from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on unemployment and underemployment among recent graduates with data from job platforms that specialize in early-career roles, according to this analysis of recent graduate conditions. That reporting describes how entry-level postings on Handshake and internship and graduate listings on Indeed have weakened, cutting off some of the most common on-ramps from campus to full-time work.
Employers have also been pushing back start dates for new hires, according to the same reporting on employer behavior, which describes delayed start dates as one way companies manage headcount while avoiding outright rescissions. At the same time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics continues to publish Table A-4 on the employment status of adults 25 and over by educational attainment, showing unemployment rates for categories such as “less than high school,” “high school, no college,” “some college or associate degree” and “bachelor’s degree and higher,” according to the Official BLS Employment Situation table. Although that table confirms that bachelor’s degree holders as a group still have lower unemployment than those with less schooling, the combination of weaker hiring pipelines and delayed starts means graduates in more vulnerable majors face longer and more uncertain job searches.
Fine arts, education and social work face the harshest squeeze
The majors that look most exposed in this cooling market are the same ones that already sit at the bottom of the earnings tables. The Census Bureau’s earnings release identifies education, fine arts and social work as fields where median pay is under $60,000, compared with $100,000 or more for computer science, engineering and economics, according to the Census American Community Survey earnings data. When a graduate in one of these lower-paying fields struggles to land a job, even a short spell of underemployment can destabilize household budgets, particularly in high-cost cities where many entry-level roles are concentrated.
New York Fed research has added another layer by looking at labor market outcomes by major for recent graduates. One analysis describes how the Federal Reserve Bank of New York examined 2024 outcomes for recent college graduates by major and found differences in unemployment and underemployment rates, according to a commentary that cites the New York Fed’s work on labor market outcomes for recent college graduates. That commentary also states that the New York Fed has not released a 2025 update on outcomes by major, which leaves 2024 as the latest such breakdown. For students considering majors like fine arts or social work, the combination of lower median pay in the Census data and weaker early-career outcomes in Fed-linked analysis helps explain why these degrees now look particularly risky.
Conflicting signals from New York Fed research
There is some confusion over how current the New York Fed’s major-by-major analysis really is. One institutional commentary states that the New York Fed has not released a 2025 update on labor market outcomes for recent college graduates by major, even as it discusses 2024 results, according to the same analysis of 2024 outcomes. Yet a separate op-ed from the Michigan Journal of Economics states that in 2025 the New York Fed analyzed income by major and refers to that work under the title “The labor market for recent college graduates,” according to the Michigan Journal of Economics op-ed. Taken together, these accounts conflict on whether the New York Fed has produced a 2025 update or whether the most recent detailed breakdown remains tied to earlier years.
Because of that discrepancy, there is insufficient data to determine with certainty whether the New York Fed has formally released a 2025 update on labor market outcomes by major. What is clear from both references is that the central bank’s work on “The labor market for recent college graduates” has become a key reference point in debates over which majors carry higher unemployment or underemployment risk. That prominence means any updated numbers would carry significant weight for students in lower-earning fields who are trying to gauge whether their degree choice leaves them especially exposed in a weaker hiring cycle.
Government surveys reveal broader pressure on new graduates
Beyond major-specific outcomes, federal labor statistics show how recent graduates as a group are faring. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes an annual release on college enrollment and work activity for high school graduates that includes a dedicated section on “Recent College Graduates (Ages 20 to 29),” which provides counts of recent degree recipients along with employment and unemployment rates for recent bachelor’s and advanced degree holders, according to the BLS Recent College Graduates data. While the latest release predates the most recent hiring chill, it confirms that even in better years, a share of recent graduates struggle to find full-time work that matches their education.
For the wider adult population, the BLS household survey that feeds into Table A-4 is collected and processed through tools maintained on federal data portals, according to technical documentation accessible through BLS data interfaces. Those figures then inform broader labor policy discussions at agencies such as the U.S. Department of Labor, which provides employment-related resources and enforcement through platforms like official Labor Department sites. For recent graduates in lower-earning majors, the interaction between these macro labor trends and the micro realities of their specific fields helps explain why the current market feels so unforgiving: they are entering a national job market that is still relatively tight by historical standards, but they are clustered in corners of the degree spectrum where pay is lower and employer demand is softer.
Students and families reassess the value of certain degrees
The widening gap between majors has prompted some economists to argue that the United States needs to rethink how higher education is structured. The Michigan Journal of Economics op-ed that discusses the New York Fed’s work frames the central bank’s analysis of income by major as evidence that some degrees carry significantly weaker early-career and mid-career pay than others, according to the Michigan economics commentary. That argument suggests that students in fields like fine arts or social work are effectively subsidizing the system with lower lifetime earnings while facing the same tuition levels as peers in higher-paying disciplines.
Financial markets and employers are also reacting to these shifts. Data services that track corporate performance and sector trends, such as the tools available through institutional market data platforms, help investors and executives gauge which industries are expanding and which are pulling back on hiring. When those signals point to stronger demand for technical skills and softer demand in sectors that traditionally employ arts, education or social work graduates, the effect filters back to campus advising offices and family kitchen-table conversations. The assumption that any bachelor’s degree is a straightforward ticket to a stable job looks less reliable, and the majors at the bottom of the Census earnings tables are the ones bearing the brunt of that adjustment.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
Grant Mercer covers market dynamics, business trends, and the economic forces driving growth across industries. His analysis connects macro movements with real-world implications for investors, entrepreneurs, and professionals. Through his work at The Daily Overview, Grant helps readers understand how markets function and where opportunities may emerge.
