Home sales have slumped to levels not seen since the aftermath of the last housing bust, leaving agents staring at the slowest pipeline in more than a decade and wondering how long the drought will last. Transactions have dried up even as prices hold near record highs, a combination that is squeezing buyers, sellers and the professionals who depend on volume to make a living. The question hanging over the industry now is whether 2026 brings a genuine thaw or just a different kind of strain.
The 13‑year low: how far sales have really fallen
Existing home sales in the United States have been stuck near the bottom of a long slide, with activity hovering around levels last seen more than 13 years ago. The latest figures show Existing Home Sales in the United States increased to 4130 Thousand in November from 4110 Thousand in October of 2025, a tiny uptick that still leaves the market deeply depressed compared with the boom years. For agents who built their businesses on a steady churn of listings and closings, that kind of volume feels like a recession, even if the broader economy is still expanding.
Industry data underscores how unusual this slowdown is, because prices have not followed sales lower in the way they did during the 2008 crash. According to an Existing Home Sales Housing Snapshot, November 2025 brought 4.13 m in sales, a median sales price of $409,200, and 4.2 m homes on the market, a combination that reflects tight supply rather than distressed selling. That mix of low transactions, high prices and limited inventory is exactly what makes this 13‑year low so punishing for professionals and so frustrating for would‑be buyers.
Agents on edge as pipelines dry up
For real estate agents, the collapse in deal volume is not an abstract chart, it is a direct hit to income and job security. Many entered 2025 expecting a rebound that never fully materialized, only to watch sales remain stalled while costs like marketing, office fees and technology subscriptions kept climbing. By the end of the year, even seasoned brokers were talking about cutting staff, consolidating offices or leaving the business altogether as they confronted the reality of a 13‑year low in closings.
The mood is captured in broader market commentary that describes how Caution defines market sentiment, with America’s housing market shaped by buyers and sellers who are nervous about making big moves. That caution, as Redfin economist Chen Zhao notes in the same analysis, has led many potential movers to delay major purchases, which in turn starves agents of the everyday transactions that keep their books healthy. When people stay put, agents feel the freeze first.
Buyers squeezed, sellers stuck, fear rising
The human side of the slowdown is most visible in the anxiety of households trying to decide whether to buy or sell in 2026. A recent report found that 40% of Americans planning a move worry they may not be able to afford housing payments in 2026 because of the combination of high prices and elevated borrowing costs. That same research highlights how many of those buyers and sellers also expect a decline in values, a double bind that leaves them afraid of both overpaying now and missing out if prices do not actually fall.
Another nationwide snapshot of sentiment shows how divided expectations have become about what kind of market lies ahead. According to a separate set of Expectations for overall conditions, 42% of buyers and sellers predict a buyer’s market, 34% a seller’s market, and nearly all respondents anticipate challenges ahead. That split view feeds into the paralysis agents describe: clients are nervous, but they are not all nervous about the same thing, which makes it harder to set realistic prices or craft confident offers.
What the latest data says about prices and inventory
Despite the crash in sales, prices have been surprisingly resilient, which is one reason affordability has deteriorated so sharply. A detailed Housing Market Overview shows that In November 2025, U.S. home prices were up 0.7% compared with a year earlier, and the typical home value in the United States is currently $433,214. That modest price gain, coming on top of several years of rapid appreciation, means buyers are still facing record or near‑record listing prices even as their purchasing power has been eroded by higher mortgage rates.
Sales volumes, meanwhile, show only the faintest signs of stabilizing. The latest Month Over Month report from the industry’s main trade group recorded a 0.5% increase in existing-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 m in November, with regional gains concentrated in the Midwest and West. Combined with the 4.2 m homes on the market and a median price of $409,200 cited in the Existing snapshot, the picture that emerges is not of a market in free fall, but of one grinding along at low speed, with just enough inventory to keep prices from spiking but not enough to reset affordability.
Forecasts for 2026: modest thaw or sharp rebound?
Looking ahead, the forecasts for 2026 are split between a cautious normalization and a more robust rebound. One widely watched outlook expects home sales to jump 14% in 2026 as mortgage rates ease and pent‑up demand finally breaks loose. That same forecast, detailed again in a related Mortgage outlook, anticipates a decline in borrowing costs that will improve affordability and coax more owners to list their homes, giving agents some hope that the 13‑year low will not become the new normal.
Other projections are more restrained, suggesting that the recovery will be real but not dramatic. A national forecast framed as Home Sales Rise Modestly From Long Term Lows expects Existing home sales to edge up by exactly 1.7% in 2026 after a nearly frozen 2025, a reminder that even a better year could still feel sluggish compared with the pre‑pandemic frenzy. Another set of Housing Market Predictions for 2026 notes that Interest rates are Predicted to fall to around 5.2% for 15‑year loans, with Home prices expected to keep rising, but at a slower pace, which would help buyers without delivering a windfall to sellers.
Will 2026 be a buyer’s market, a seller’s market, or neither?
One of the most pressing questions for agents is what kind of market structure they should prepare for in 2026, because strategy depends on whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand. A detailed Results summary from a survey of 500 consumers who plan to buy or sell a home in 2026 and 500 consumers not planning a move shows that many participants actually feel good about their prospects, even as they voice concerns about a housing market crash. That split sentiment suggests a market where neither side expects an easy win, but both believe they can succeed with the right timing and strategy.
At the same time, another nationwide poll of expectations finds that 42% of buyers and sellers anticipate a buyer’s market while 34% expect a seller’s market, according to the Expectations for overall conditions. That near tie, with a slight edge toward buyers, reinforces the idea that 2026 may be a transitional year rather than a clear‑cut shift, forcing agents to tailor their advice neighborhood by neighborhood instead of relying on a single national narrative.
Why most experts say “slowdown,” not “crash”
Despite the alarming language some consumers use, many housing specialists argue that the current slump in sales does not resemble a classic crash. A detailed explainer on whether Jason Huerkamp, a Minnesota real estate agent with over 20 years of experience, believes a 2026 housing crash is coming notes that he rejects the idea of a wave of forced foreclosures all at once. His reasoning is that lending standards have been tighter than in the mid‑2000s, and most owners have significant equity, which makes a sudden flood of distressed listings far less likely.
Other analysts frame 2026 as a turning point toward a more balanced market rather than a cliff. A concise set of projections from Liberty Title argues that 2026 won’t bring a housing boom, but Buyers can expect slightly better conditions as inventory improves and bidding wars cool. That view aligns with the modest price growth outlined in a Home market outlook that says Home prices in 2026 are expected to cool, not collapse, which is a far cry from the double‑digit price drops that defined the last true crash.
Hot spots, revenge buyers and where agents see opportunity
Even in a sluggish national market, some regions are poised to outperform, and agents in those areas are preparing for a very different year. A list of emerging destinations notes that Existing-home sales are forecast to jump by 14% in certain hot spots, with prices in those markets expected to rise by about 4% in 2026 as Americans buy their next home in more affordable or fast‑growing metros. For agents, those pockets of strength offer a lifeline, especially for brokerages that can shift resources or recruit talent in the cities where demand is still robust.
Some commentators have gone further, arguing that 2026 could feel like “revenge” for buyers who have been sidelined for years. A widely shared video analysis points out that 2025 ended with sales stalled, inventory finally rising, mortgage rates easing slightly, and sellers still reluctant to cut prices, dynamics that are setting up more negotiating power for buyers who remain in the game. If that shift plays out, agents who have spent the past two years coaching clients through bidding wars may need to pivot quickly to strategies focused on concessions, inspection credits and seller‑paid closing costs.
How agents can survive the low and prepare for the turn
For agents staring at a 13‑year low in home sales, survival in the short term and success in the eventual rebound will depend on how quickly they adapt. Many are already diversifying into rentals, property management or commercial deals to offset the collapse in residential volume, while others are doubling down on education so they can guide clients through a more complex, data‑driven market. The key, as several forecasts suggest, is to recognize that 2026 is unlikely to bring a boom, but it may mark the start of a slow normalization that rewards patience and skill.
That perspective is reinforced by the mix of cautious and optimistic projections now circulating across the industry. Analysts who emphasize that NAR expects a 14% jump in sales, that Existing home sales may only rise 1.7% from long term lows, and that interest rates are Predicted to drift toward 5.2% all converge on a similar message: the worst of the freeze may be passing, but the thaw will be uneven. For agents, that means treating the current crash in transactions not as a permanent state, but as a demanding chapter that will reward those who stay informed, stay visible and stay ready for the next turn in the cycle.
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Elias Broderick specializes in residential and commercial real estate, with a focus on market cycles, property fundamentals, and investment strategy. His writing translates complex housing and development trends into clear insights for both new and experienced investors. At The Daily Overview, Elias explores how real estate fits into long-term wealth planning.
