Tax season is always a stress test for household budgets, but the 2026 filing season for 2025 returns is shaping up to be unusually fraught. A sweeping new tax law, agency layoffs, and technology changes are converging in ways that lawmakers say could slow the money that millions of families count on each spring. I see a clear pattern in the warnings: refunds may ultimately be larger for many filers, but getting that cash in hand could take longer and require more work.
Behind the political sound bites is a practical message for taxpayers. The rules for 2025 are different, the Internal Revenue Service is under strain, and the usual assumption that a clean return means cash in 21 days is less reliable than it used to be. Understanding what is changing, and how to navigate it, is the best defense against an unwelcome delay.
New tax law means bigger, more complicated refunds
The starting point for the coming crunch is the tax code itself. The One Big Beautiful Bill reshaped key provisions for 2025, and the ripple effects will show up directly in refund amounts. According to the Key Takeaways, The One Big Beautiful Bill, also known as the Working Families Tax Cut and often shortened to OBBB, makes many of the 2017 changes permanent while layering on new breaks for households with children and workers with modest incomes. Separate analysis of Key Points on Tax Refunds and the One Big Beautiful Bill Ac finds that Refunds will be larger than typical in the upcoming filing season because of the One Big Beautiful Bill Ac, as withholding tables lagged behind the new law and left more tax paid in during the year than the new law required.
More generous rules do not automatically translate into smooth filing, however. Many of the 2025 tax changes were part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and Many of those provisions alter which tax benefits you qualify for, from expanded credits to revised brackets. A separate breakdown of One Big Beautiful Bill, What, Summary of, Raises SALT, notes that Raises SALT cap to $40,000 if you earn up to $500,000 and that several family credits now hinge on having a valid Social Security number. That kind of complexity is fertile ground for mistakes, and as I will explain later, even small errors are one of the fastest ways to push a refund into manual review.
Lawmakers and watchdogs see trouble ahead at the IRS
Members of Congress are not just reacting to the new law, they are sounding alarms about the agency that has to administer it. In a detailed warning, IRS Is Unprepared for Upcoming Tax Filing Season, Senators Warn describes how senior Democrats pressed IRS officials about whether systems and staffing can handle the surge of new credits and larger refunds. The same report notes that the IRS’s own leadership, including the Commissioner of Wage and Investment and the Commissioner of Taxpayer Services Ken Corbin, has acknowledged that taxpayers will likely face delays if volumes spike and staffing remains tight.
Those concerns are echoed by individual lawmakers. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, identified as Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Mass, has joined other Democrats in warning that the IRS is not ready for the upcoming tax filing season and that taxpayers will likely face delays if Congress does not restore staffing and modernize technology. The political message is blunt, but the underlying math is straightforward: more complex returns, larger average refunds, and fewer people to process them is a recipe for slower turnaround.
Staff cuts and layoffs are already slowing refunds
The staffing problem is not hypothetical. A midyear analysis of Delayed Processing Times concludes that a smaller IRS workforce inevitably means IRS tax delays, with Slower processing of tax returns, responses to notices, and adjustments when taxpayers dispute a bill. Another review of the 2025 filing season found that The IRS processed about 138 m of the nearly 141 m individual income tax returns that it received, a reminder that even in a relatively successful year millions of returns can still be waiting in the pipeline when the filing deadline passes, according to The IRS.
On top of attrition, outright layoffs are reshaping how quickly the agency can move paper. One analysis of the 2025 Filing Season by the Numbers, titled Five Million IRS Refunds Delayed, Staff Cuts, Filing Season, Numbers, reports that staff reductions have already contributed to millions of refunds being held up while identity theft cases and error flags are resolved. A separate warning on how IRS layoffs could affect your 2025 tax refund notes that a worker shortage means Processing centers will be understaffed, especially for paper returns and amended filings, according to Feb coverage that highlighted how Processing bottlenecks can ripple into longer waits even for e-filers.
Democrats’ delay warnings meet an IRS in transition
Democratic leaders have tried to get ahead of taxpayer frustration by publicly flagging the risk of slower refunds. A detailed account of the Tax Refund Delay Warning Issued by Democrats explains that Democratic lawmakers are telling constituents to brace for a filing season that could be more challenging than ever, citing both the new law and the agency’s shrinking workforce. In the Senate, the message has been similar, with You may not notice a change, Senate Finance Committee Democrats said on Tuesday, but they warned that getting every refund out on time is harder when IRS layoffs are a reality with less people.
At the same time, the IRS is trying to modernize how it sends money, a shift that could both ease and complicate the transition. In a joint announcement from WASHINGTON, The Internal Revenue Service, working with the Department of the Treasury, said it will phase out paper tax refund checks starting with individual taxpayers, arguing that direct deposit and prepaid cards are faster and cost less than paper. That shift should, in theory, speed up payments for people who file electronically and provide accurate banking details, but it also raises the stakes for getting that information right, since a bad account number can send a refund into limbo.
Why individual returns are more likely to get stuck
Even in a normal year, the IRS cautions that not every refund arrives on the same timetable. The agency’s own guidance notes that most refunds are issued in less than 21 days for accurate e-filed returns, but that some need more review, and it encourages taxpayers to track their status through the official refunds portal. A separate advisory titled Jul, The IRS Refund Delay, What Every Taxpayer Needs, Know, Most IRS, explains that the main 2025 tax refund delays are tied to identity verification, mismatched income reports, and returns that claim certain credits, and that high processing volumes can also contribute to delays, according to The IRS Refund Delay.
Errors are another recurring culprit. A practical guide to why refunds take longer lists several top reasons, including Incorrect direct deposit information and simple math mistakes, and stresses that the fastest way to receive a refund is to e-file a correct return and request a direct deposit, while warning that errors in your tax return can trigger extra checks during system updates or high processing volumes, as detailed under Dec guidance on Incorrect information. When I put that together with the new law’s added complexity, it is hard to escape the conclusion that more returns will fall into the “needs review” bucket, even if the taxpayer did everything in good faith.
How to file smarter under the 2025 rules
The good news is that taxpayers are not powerless in the face of these structural problems. The National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins has already highlighted a successful 2025 filing season and challenges for 2026, urging the IRS and Congress to take steps now to prepare, according to a midyear report from National Taxpayer Advocate Erin. For individual filers, that preparation starts with understanding the new credits and deductions that apply to 2025, gathering documentation early, and filing electronically with direct deposit to avoid the slowest channels.
Several consumer-focused explainers walk through the new benefits in plain language. One video overview notes that Tax year 2025 brings major changes, including tax exemptions on tips and overtime through 2028, plus a new $600 deduction for certain caregiving expenses, and urges workers to adjust withholding and use available credits before year’s end, according to Tax guidance that also cites the figure $600. Another explainer by Jeanne Sahadi of CNN, summarized in a local report, walks through what to know now about changes to your 2025 taxes and stresses that understanding the new law before preparing your 2025 tax return can help you avoid mistakes that slow refunds, according to Jeanne Sahadi, CNN. I read those recommendations as a simple playbook: learn the new rules, file early, file electronically, and double check every number, because in a year when the system is under strain, the cleanest returns will move to the front of the line.
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Julian Harrow specializes in taxation, IRS rules, and compliance strategy. His work helps readers navigate complex tax codes, deadlines, and reporting requirements while identifying opportunities for efficiency and risk reduction. At The Daily Overview, Julian breaks down tax-related topics with precision and clarity, making a traditionally dense subject easier to understand.
