The most famous skeptic of the housing bubble is now training his sights on the market’s favorite artificial intelligence winner. Michael Burry is openly comparing Nvidia’s role in today’s AI enthusiasm to Cisco’s position at the height of the dot‑com era, arguing that investors are again mistaking infrastructure dominance for limitless long‑term returns. His critique lands at a moment when AI chips, cloud spending, and stock‑based pay are colliding in ways that could either justify the hype or echo the excesses of 1999.
I see Burry’s new campaign against Nvidia as more than a single-stock call. It is a broader warning that the “glorious folly” of AI could be repeating the same pattern of overbuilding, aggressive accounting, and shareholder-unfriendly capital allocation that defined the last great tech mania, with Nvidia cast in the Cisco role at the center of it all.
Inside Burry’s new Substack and his Cisco comparison
Michael Burry has chosen a very public stage for his latest warning, launching a new Substack in late November where he promises to focus on “stocks, market and economic trends, special situations, and” other corners of the market that catch his eye. In the blog’s About section, he signals that this will be an ongoing project rather than a one‑off rant, and early entries have already zeroed in on Nvidia as the emblem of what he sees as speculative excess in AI, a campaign described in detail in coverage of Michael Burry Unchained. He is not just questioning valuation; he is challenging the narrative that AI infrastructure spending can grow almost without friction or limit.
In his first Substack post, published on Nov 23, 2025, the “Big Short” investor sharpened that critique by likening Nvidia to Cisco at the peak of the internet build‑out. Michael Burry of “Big Short” fame argued that the chip designer has become the “Cisco of this tech boom,” a company whose products are indispensable to the current wave but whose stock may already price in years of perfect execution and uninterrupted demand, a comparison highlighted in reporting on his new Substack and Nvidia. By invoking Cisco, Burry is reminding investors that even category-defining winners can deliver disappointing long‑term returns if bought at the wrong point in a speculative cycle.
The “glorious folly” of AI and echoes of the dot‑com bubble
Burry’s skepticism is not limited to one ticker; he is questioning the entire economic logic of the AI arms race. In another post dated Nov 23, 2025, he described the current enthusiasm around artificial intelligence as a “glorious folly,” warning that hyperscalers and enterprises may be racing to deploy AI capacity at a pace that could outstrip real-world demand. That phrase captures his view that the technology itself may be transformative while the investment frenzy around it could still end badly, a tension laid out in coverage of how Michael Burry, Nvidia and the AI build‑out intersect.
Earlier in November, Burry’s posts underscored that he sees “shades of the dot‑com bubble” in the way AI infrastructure, software, and chip stocks are trading. On Nov 4, 2025, he was already highlighting how AI‑linked names were surging on incremental news, arguing that investors were extrapolating early revenue wins into a straight line of future growth, a pattern detailed in analysis of how Burry is betting against AI favorites. When he now compares Nvidia to Cisco, he is effectively saying that the market is again confusing a genuine technological shift with an investable guarantee that every leading supplier will justify its current multiple.
Accounting red flags: stock-based pay and “suspicious” revenue
Beyond macro analogies, Burry is drilling into Nvidia’s financial statements and arguing that the numbers themselves are sending warning signals. After the company’s latest Q3 report, he published a detailed critique that accused the chipmaker of relying heavily on stock-based compensation and aggressive revenue recognition to flatter its results. In that analysis, he framed stock awards as a real economic cost that dilutes existing shareholders, and he suggested that some of the company’s reported growth may be pulled forward or otherwise massaged, concerns that were summarized in coverage titled Michael Burry Tears Into Nvidia After Q3.
His critique goes further by tying those accounting choices to the broader AI narrative. Burry argues that when a company is at the center of a hot theme, there is intense pressure to keep beating expectations, which can encourage what he calls “suspicious revenue recognition” and a willingness to lean on non‑cash expenses to preserve headline profitability. In a separate post on Nov 19, 2025, he warned that if management is moving in that direction, “chances are you have to be doing it, and it is not pleasant,” a line that appeared in reporting on his reaction to Nvidia’s earnings blowout and the risk of an AI bubble. For investors, the message is clear: in a boom, the quality of earnings can matter as much as the quantity.
Buybacks, “zero” value, and the cost of chasing AI
One of Burry’s sharpest lines of attack targets how Nvidia has been returning capital to shareholders, or in his view, failing to. In a post highlighted on Nov 20, 2025, he argued that Nvidia has spent “$112.5 Billion” on share repurchases while adding “Zero” shareholder value, a figure and verdict that appeared in coverage under the banner “Michael Burry Says Nvidia Spent $112.5 Billion On Buybacks Adding ‘Zero’ Shareholder Value, ‘The True Cost’.” He contends that those buybacks have not meaningfully reduced the share count once stock-based compensation is factored in, and that the cash could have been deployed in ways that boosted “owner’s earnings” instead, a critique laid out in detail in analysis of how Michael Burry Says Nvidia Spent that $112.5 Billion On Buybacks Adding “Zero” Shareholder Value, The True Cost.
In Burry’s telling, this is not just a capital allocation quibble; it is part of the same pattern that defined late‑cycle behavior in prior bubbles. When a company is rewarded primarily for headline growth and narrative dominance, he argues, it can be tempted to use buybacks to offset dilution from lavish equity grants rather than to genuinely concentrate ownership for long‑term holders. That is why he frames the “true cost” of Nvidia’s repurchases as far higher than the headline figure, because the cash outlay has not translated into a tighter share base or a proportional increase in per‑share economic value. For investors who remember how Cisco and other dot‑com darlings spent heavily on buybacks without preventing years of underperformance, the parallel is hard to miss.
From 1999 to November 25th: why Burry thinks history rhymes
Burry’s Cisco analogy is rooted in his conviction that market history is repeating itself. In a recent commentary dated Nov 23, 2025, he pointed to November 25th as a symbolic marker, arguing that the setup in AI and high‑growth tech feels eerily similar to the final stages of the late‑1990s boom. According to The Wall Street Journal, he has been wrestling with rumors about his own fund and what he calls the “exaggeration by the” market, yet he still insists that the pattern of 1999 is repeating itself, a perspective captured in a report that notes how, on Nov 23, 2025, he cited November 25th while referencing how According to The Wall Street Journal the script of 1999 is repeating itself.
His latest Substack posts extend that historical framing to the current roster of tech giants. On Nov 23, 2025, Burry went further, comparing today’s key players, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon, Oracle and a rising AI‑centered star to the most celebrated names of the dot‑com era, arguing that the market is again crowding into a handful of “popular” winners while underestimating how quickly sentiment can turn. He even likened Nvidia to the “most popular fellow in the room,” a phrase that hints at how social and narrative dynamics can drive prices beyond what fundamentals alone would justify, a comparison detailed in coverage that notes how Burry lines up Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon and others against their dot‑com counterparts. For investors weighing whether Nvidia is the next Cisco, his message is blunt: the technology may endure, but the stock chart might still rhyme with history.
More From TheDailyOverview
- Dave Ramsey says these two simple questions show whether you’re rich or poor
- Retired But Want To Work? Try These 18 Jobs for Seniors That Pay Weekly
- IRS raises capital gains thresholds for 2026 and what’s new
- 12 ways to make $5,000 fast that actually work
Elias Broderick specializes in residential and commercial real estate, with a focus on market cycles, property fundamentals, and investment strategy. His writing translates complex housing and development trends into clear insights for both new and experienced investors. At The Daily Overview, Elias explores how real estate fits into long-term wealth planning.
