Cyber Monday is still on track to set fresh spending records in the United States, but the growth story is shifting. While shoppers keep clicking, the pace of online gains in the U.S. is now lagging behind Europe as tariffs filter through prices and reshape what people are willing to buy. The result is a holiday season where headline numbers look strong, yet the underlying momentum is clearly moving across the Atlantic.
Instead of a short, frantic burst of deals, the modern calendar has turned Nov’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday into a long, blended shopping window that stretches across an entire week. Within that extended rush, U.S. consumers are running into higher prices on some of the very categories that once defined Cyber Monday, from gaming consoles to other electronics, while European shoppers benefit from companies that have quietly adapted to President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Cyber Monday’s record ambitions meet a slower U.S. engine
On the surface, Cyber Monday in the U.S. still looks like a juggernaut, with forecasts pointing to another record haul for online retailers. Software company Salesforce, which tracks digital spending across a wide range of merchants including grocers, has projected that shoppers worldwide could spend as much as $53.7 billion on Cyber Monday alone, underscoring how central this single day has become to the global retail calendar. That headline figure, however, masks a more nuanced reality in which the United States is no longer the clear growth leader it once was.
Salesforce’s own data shows that global Black Friday spending grew at roughly twice the rate of U.S. sales, a sign that the strongest acceleration is now coming from Europe and other international markets rather than American households. The company’s consumer insights team has also noted that Online holiday spending typically rises more quickly in the U.S., yet this year the increase is expected to be slightly less than 2024’s growth, even as worldwide demand remains robust. In other words, the U.S. is still adding billions in digital sales, but the incremental gains are smaller than the surges seen elsewhere, a shift that sets the stage for a Cyber Monday in which America delivers big numbers without owning the fastest growth lane.
From sprint to season: how Nov reshaped Black Friday and Cyber Monday
The structure of the shopping season itself is helping to blur the picture of who is really winning Cyber Monday. What used to be a sharp divide between Black Friday doorbusters and a one-day online blitz has turned into a continuous promotional arc that runs across much of Nov, with retailers stretching discounts over multiple days to smooth out demand and capture more cautious consumers. Experts now describe Black Friday and Cyber Monday as effectively fused, a single extended event rather than two distinct peaks, which makes it harder to judge performance by looking at any one 24-hour period.
For shoppers, that shift has meant more time to compare prices and a wider window to hunt for deals on categories like electronics, home appliances, and clothing, but it has also diluted the urgency that once defined Cyber Monday in the U.S. Analysts advising consumers on what to buy and skip during this season have emphasized that the best offers on some products arrive well before the official Cyber Monday date, while other items see deeper markdowns later in December. As retailers spread promotions across the month, the U.S. loses some of the concentrated growth that used to show up in Cyber Monday statistics, even as overall Nov spending remains high.
Tariffs move from policy page to checkout screen
The most striking difference between the U.S. and Europe this year is how directly tariffs are hitting American shoppers in the categories that once powered Cyber Monday’s rise. This is the first holiday shopping season since Trump announced sweeping tariffs in April on dozens of countries, sending a wave of higher import costs through supply chains that feed U.S. shelves. Those levies are particularly painful in discretionary segments like toys, consumer electronics, and video games, where a large share of inventory is imported and margins are already thin.
Retail analysts tracking Cyber Monday pricing say they are seeing tariffs drive costs higher for holiday shoppers in key discretionary spend areas like toys and electronics, eroding the depth of discounts that consumers have come to expect. In practical terms, that means fewer eye-popping markdowns on big-ticket items and more modest price cuts that leave final totals noticeably higher than in previous years. While some retailers are absorbing part of the hit, others are passing more of it through to customers, a pattern that helps explain why U.S. online spending is still growing in absolute terms but no longer outpacing Europe’s expansion.
Gaming consoles and video games as tariff shock case study
Nowhere is the impact of tariffs more visible than in the gaming aisle, a traditional centerpiece of Cyber Monday promotions. Cyber Monday discounts on video games and consoles are far weaker than usual this year, largely reflecting the impact of higher import costs on hardware like Sony’s PlayStation 5 and Microsoft’s Xbox Series X. For families used to seeing aggressive bundles that pair consoles with multiple games and accessories, the new reality is a set of offers that look thinner and more expensive, even after promotional codes are applied.
Reporting on Cyber Monday video game prices has underscored how much weight Trump’s tariffs now carry in this market, with retailers and analysts pointing to elevated costs across many of these traditional gifting segments. Instead of the steep markdowns that once helped clear inventory, shoppers are encountering smaller percentage cuts on titles and accessories, and in some cases, list prices that have crept higher over the course of the year. That combination is a drag on U.S. discretionary spending growth, especially among younger consumers and parents, and it stands in sharp contrast to parts of Europe where companies have been more successful at cushioning end buyers from similar trade pressures.
Salesforce data shows U.S. losing its online growth edge
Behind the scenes, the numbers that Salesforce is collecting from retailers around the world tell a consistent story about where momentum is shifting. Earlier in the holiday period, the company reported that global Black Friday spending grew twice as fast as U.S. sales, a gap that highlights how international shoppers are driving a larger share of the incremental gains. That divergence is especially notable because Online holiday spending typically rises more quickly in the U.S., according to Caila Schwartz, Salesforce’s director of consumer insights, who has tracked years of data on digital retail trends.
Schwartz and her team expect U.S. online sales to keep climbing into the final hours of Cyber Monday, but the projected growth rate is slightly less than 2024’s increase, even as Europe and other regions continue to accelerate. In a separate forecast, Salesforce has indicated that total U.S. online orders over the broader Cyber Monday week could actually decline by about 1 percent, even as retailers push a bargain blitz of promotions to chase the last dollars of the season. That mix of softer order volumes and slower growth, set against a backdrop of record global spending, is a clear sign that the U.S. is ceding some of its digital retail leadership to markets that are less constrained by tariff-driven price pressures.
Retailers stretch Cyber Monday into a weeklong bargain blitz
Faced with higher costs and more cautious consumers, U.S. retailers have responded by turning Cyber Monday from a single day into a weeklong campaign designed to keep shoppers engaged. Over this Cyber Monday week, major chains have rolled out rolling flash sales, app-only coupons, and extended return windows in an effort to nudge hesitant buyers off the sidelines. Despite those efforts, early data shows that in-store traffic has softened and online orders declined by 1 percent compared with last year, a reminder that promotions alone cannot fully offset the drag from higher prices.
For the final data set that will capture the tail end of the season, Salesforce expects U.S. online sales to rise, but at a more modest pace than in previous years, even as retailers continue their bargain blitz. The strategy is clear: stretch the promotional window, lean on loyalty programs, and hope that a longer runway can compensate for weaker conversion on any given day. Yet the fact that this extended Cyber Monday week is delivering only incremental gains, rather than a surge, reinforces the idea that structural factors like tariffs and shifting consumer priorities are doing more to shape the U.S. growth curve than marketing calendars or clever discounting tactics.
Europe Inc. adapts while U.S. shoppers absorb the hit
While American consumers are feeling the tariff impact at the checkout, many European companies have spent the year quietly reengineering their operations to blunt the effect of Trump’s trade policy. Unilever, for example, has said it is cutting costs to avoid pushing up prices and forcing consumers toward cheaper brands, a strategy that helps preserve both market share and volume growth. Chief Executive Officer Fernando Fernandez has emphasized that the company continues delivering significant volume, even as it navigates higher input costs and a more complex trade environment.
Across the Atlantic, President Donald Trump’s administration has imposed levies on industries like steel, but European pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis have still managed to post gains in the U.S. market, in some cases by striking deals that secure more favorable terms. A Barclays report has highlighted how companies’ efforts to mitigate the impact of tariffs, from supply chain shifts to targeted cost cuts, are paying off in the form of resilient earnings and competitive pricing. That corporate adaptation helps explain why Europe’s online spending growth is outpacing the U.S. this Cyber Monday season: European shoppers are benefiting from firms that have absorbed more of the shock, while American households are being asked to shoulder a larger share of the tariff bill directly.
Consumer behavior shifts under price pressure
Higher prices in key categories are not just slowing growth, they are also changing how and when people shop. In the U.S., many households are spreading purchases across the entire holiday season instead of concentrating them on Cyber Monday, a pattern that reflects both tighter budgets and the extended promotional calendar. Shoppers are more likely to prioritize essentials and practical gifts, delaying or downsizing big-ticket buys like premium laptops, 4K televisions, and next-generation consoles when discounts fail to match expectations.
Consumer advisors have been explicit about which categories offer genuine value during Black Friday and Cyber Monday and which are better skipped until later in the season, guiding people toward items where retailers are still willing to sacrifice margin. That kind of targeted bargain hunting can keep overall spending totals high, but it also means that some of the traditional Cyber Monday stars, especially in electronics, are no longer the automatic winners they once were. As U.S. buyers become more selective and price sensitive, the growth engine shifts toward regions where shoppers face fewer tariff-related trade-offs and where companies have done more of the heavy lifting to keep sticker shock in check.
What slower U.S. growth means for the next holiday cycle
The fact that U.S. Cyber Monday growth is trailing Europe this year does not signal an immediate crisis for American retail, but it does mark a turning point that executives and policymakers will have to reckon with. If tariffs continue to weigh on discretionary categories, retailers may need to rethink their dependence on imported electronics and toys as the centerpiece of holiday promotions, perhaps leaning more heavily on private-label goods, services, and experiences that are less exposed to trade frictions. At the same time, brands that can follow Unilever’s lead by cutting internal costs rather than raising prices will be better positioned to defend both volume and loyalty.
For shoppers, the lesson is that the Cyber Monday of old, defined by spectacular markdowns on the latest gadgets, is giving way to a more uneven landscape where some deals remain compelling and others barely move the needle. As long as tariffs remain in place and companies vary in how they respond, the gap between U.S. and European online growth is likely to persist, with Europe Inc. continuing to post gains in the U.S. market even as American consumers feel squeezed. The next holiday cycle will test whether retailers and policymakers can narrow that divide, or whether Cyber Monday’s fastest growth will stay anchored on the far side of the Atlantic.
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Alex is the strategic mind behind The Daily Overview, guiding its mission to uncover the forces shaping modern wealth. With a background in market analysis and a track record of building digital-first businesses, he leads the publication with a focus on clarity, depth, and forward-looking insight. Alex oversees editorial direction, growth strategy, and the development of new content verticals that help readers identify opportunity in an ever-evolving financial landscape. His leadership emphasizes disciplined thinking, high standards, and a commitment to making sophisticated financial ideas accessible to a broad audience.
