The IRS reported that the average tax refund for the 2025 tax year stands at $2,290 as of early February 2026, a 10.9% jump from the $2,065 average recorded at the same point last year. The increase arrives during a filing season shaped by new federal deductions and growing questions about whether the agency has the workforce to keep refunds flowing on schedule. For the tens of millions of filers still preparing their returns ahead of the April 15, 2026 deadline, that average number tells only part of the story.
A Bigger Average Check, With a Catch
The $2,290 figure comes from the IRS’s regularly updated filing statistics covering the period ending February 6, 2026. Compared to the same week in the prior year, when the average refund was $2,065, the 10.9% increase is notable. But early-season averages are volatile. They reflect a self-selecting group of filers who submit returns in the first two weeks, often because they expect money back and want it fast. People with complex returns, multiple income streams, or outstanding tax liabilities tend to file later, which drags the average down as the season progresses.
That pattern means the current $2,290 figure will almost certainly shift before April. The IRS publishes these snapshots as part of a standardized weekly series stretching back years, and in most seasons the early average declines once a broader cross-section of taxpayers enters the pool. Readers expecting a check close to that amount should treat it as a directional signal rather than a guarantee. The final season-wide average will depend on how many people file, how much they earned in 2025, and how widely new deductions and credits are used.
New Deductions Could Be Pulling Refunds Higher
One plausible driver of the increase is Public Law 119-21, signed on July 4, 2025, which created new above-the-line deductions for tip income and overtime pay. The IRS outlined eligibility rules for these provisions in a dedicated guidance page, noting that the changes apply to 2025 tax-year returns now being processed. Workers in restaurants, hospitality, and other tipped industries, along with hourly employees who logged overtime, stand to see lower taxable income and therefore larger refunds if they claimed these deductions correctly on their Form 1040.
The timing matters. Tipped and hourly workers often have straightforward W‑2 returns and file early, precisely the population that would show up in the first statistical snapshot. If a disproportionate share of early filers claimed tip or overtime deductions, that alone could explain much of the 10.9% bump without any broader economic improvement. The IRS does not break out how many early returns include these new deductions, and more granular data from the agency’s Statistics of Income division are typically released later in the spring through its seasonal data releases. Until those figures arrive, the link between the new law and the higher average remains a strong inference rather than a confirmed cause.
EITC and ACTC Filers Still Waiting
A significant slice of refund recipients has not received payments yet. Filers who claimed the Earned Income Tax Credit or the Additional Child Tax Credit face a legally mandated processing delay under the Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes Act. When the IRS announced the opening of the 2026 filing season, it reiterated that most EITC and ACTC refunds would not be released until February 27 at the earliest and are broadly expected to reach bank accounts in early March. That delay exists because federal law requires the agency to hold these refunds long enough to verify eligibility and reduce fraud, but it also means the current $2,290 average largely excludes a population that skews toward lower incomes and, in many cases, smaller refund amounts.
Once those refunds begin flowing, the overall average will likely shift. EITC recipients, by definition, earn below certain income thresholds, and their refunds, while sometimes substantial relative to their earnings, tend to be smaller in absolute dollar terms than those of higher-income early filers who may claim large overpayments or itemized deductions. At the same time, many low- and moderate-income households rely heavily on these credits as a once-a-year cash infusion to catch up on bills, pay down debt, or cover major purchases. The March wave will therefore test the IRS’s processing capacity at a moment when the agency faces real operational strain, and delays could have outsized impacts on family budgets.
Workforce Cuts Raise Processing Risks
The National Taxpayer Advocate flagged serious concerns in her most recent report to Congress, finding that while taxpayer service was strong in 2025, the outlook for 2026 is less certain. The report documents workforce reductions at the IRS and identifies operational risks for the current filing season, especially in functions that handle correspondence, identity verification, and complex account issues. For filers whose returns trigger errors, identity verification holds, or audit flags, fewer staff members mean longer wait times to resolve problems and release refunds, even if electronic filing and automated systems continue to handle straightforward cases efficiently.
The Taxpayer Advocate Service expanded on these concerns in its FY2026 objectives, which include detailed filing-season performance figures and risk assessments. The picture that emerges is an agency that handled routine processing well last year but may struggle with exceptions this year. Straightforward returns filed electronically with direct deposit and no unusual credits will likely move through the system without significant delay. But anyone whose return gets pulled aside for review could face a longer wait than in previous years, and that risk is higher for EITC and ACTC claimants whose returns undergo mandatory verification. Taxpayers who respond quickly to IRS notices, keep copies of their documentation, and monitor their online accounts will be better positioned to navigate any hiccups.
What the Early Numbers Mean for Your Return
The $2,290 average is a useful benchmark, but individual refunds depend on specific circumstances: filing status, withholding choices, deductions claimed, and credits applied. Someone who switched jobs, adjusted their W‑4 withholding, or became eligible for the new tip and overtime deductions could see a refund that is much larger or smaller than in prior years, regardless of the national average. Conversely, taxpayers who picked up side gigs without adequate estimated payments, realized big capital gains, or lost access to certain credits may owe money even in a year when the average refund is rising. The early data simply indicate that among the first wave of filers (many of whom tend to be wage earners expecting refunds), the typical check is currently bigger than it was at this time last season.
For households still preparing their returns, the practical takeaway is to focus less on the headline average and more on the mechanics of their own filing. Double-check that your employer withholdings match your current income level and family situation, review whether you qualify for new or expanded deductions like those for tips and overtime, and file electronically with direct deposit to speed processing. If you claim the EITC or ACTC, build the statutory delay into your budget rather than counting on a February payout. And if your return is more complicated this year, because of self-employment income, major investment activity, or life changes such as marriage or divorce, consider setting aside extra time or professional help to avoid errors that could trigger time-consuming IRS follow-up. In a season shaped by bigger early refunds but tighter agency capacity, accuracy and preparation are likely to matter more than ever in determining how quickly your own refund arrives.
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*This article was researched with the help of AI, with human editors creating the final content.
Julian Harrow specializes in taxation, IRS rules, and compliance strategy. His work helps readers navigate complex tax codes, deadlines, and reporting requirements while identifying opportunities for efficiency and risk reduction. At The Daily Overview, Julian breaks down tax-related topics with precision and clarity, making a traditionally dense subject easier to understand.
