Donald Trump has claimed that China stopped buying American soybeans during Joe Biden’s presidency, casting himself as the only leader who could reopen that market. The trade data tell a very different story, showing steady Chinese demand and, in key years, larger shipments under Biden than during Trump’s first term. The gap between the rhetoric and the numbers matters, because it shapes how farmers understand their own livelihoods and the policies that affect them.
What Trump said, and what the export data actually show
Trump’s recent claim that China simply did not buy soybeans while Biden was in office turns out to be flatly contradicted by the record. Since 2017, America has exported more than 22 million metric tons of soybeans to China in every year except two, a level of trade that is impossible to square with the idea of a complete cutoff. Those volumes include the Biden years, when shipments continued to move through Gulf ports and Pacific Northwest terminals even as political talking points suggested otherwise.
Independent tallies of trade flows reinforce how far Trump’s narrative strays from reality. One analysis of customs and agriculture data found that Data shows US soybean exports to China were higher under Biden (2021-2024: ~108 MMT) than Trump’s first term (2017-2020), meaning China actually bought more, not less, during the period Trump now disparages. When I compare those figures with Trump’s sweeping assertion that China walked away from the market, the conclusion is unavoidable: the claim is not just exaggerated, it is directly refuted by the numbers.
Why soybeans and China matter so much to U.S. farmers
To understand why this distortion resonates, it helps to look at how central soybeans are to the farm economy and how dependent that crop is on Chinese demand. In 2020, according to official Highlights, the value of U.S. soybean exports to the world reached a record $25.7 billion, up nearly 40 percent from the previous year, underscoring how much cash flow for rural communities rides on this single commodity. Those dollars help pay for everything from seed and fertilizer to pickup trucks and Main Street mortgages.
The geography of that dependence is just as striking. Across the country, soybean production is heavily concentrated in the Midwest and the South, where farmers often rotate beans with corn and rely on export elevators along the Mississippi River and Gulf Coast. When politicians talk about China cutting off purchases, they are speaking directly to growers in those regions who remember how quickly basis levels and land values can shift when a top buyer pulls back.
From trade war to “Phase 1” and beyond
The roots of today’s argument stretch back to the trade war that Trump launched against China, which hit soybeans particularly hard. The confrontation eventually produced a Phase 1 agreement that was supposed to restore stability, but even that deal came after months in which farmers watched shipments stall and prices sag. The importance of China in the soybean market cannot be overstated, because its feed mills and crushers absorb a huge share of global supply.
Later, as negotiators discussed a follow-on arrangement, analysts dug into China Historical Agricultural Purchases to see how much buying had actually occurred during the years covered by the initial pact. Those reviews showed that while China did step up purchases of U.S. farm goods, including soybeans, it did not always hit the ambitious targets that had been advertised. That context matters when Trump now touts his own new arrangement with Chinese President Xi Jinping and claims it will deliver more than what China did during the Biden years.
How Biden-era trade compares with Trump’s promises
Trump has recently pointed to a fresh understanding with Beijing as proof that only he can move Chinese buyers back into the American market. He has said that his new deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping calls for China to purchase at least as many soybeans as it did during his first term, and more than it did during the Biden years. Yet when I line up that boast against the export tallies that show higher volumes under Biden, the promise looks less like a breakthrough and more like an attempt to rebrand an already robust trade flow.
Other market indicators also suggest that Chinese demand has not vanished and, in some scenarios, could climb further regardless of who occupies the White House. Analysts following one recent commercial framework noted that, if realized, the deal would return Chinese soybean purchases to near the average of 26.6 million metric tons the country bought in earlier years, and that China purchased 27 million metric tons in 2024. Those figures fit neatly with the broader pattern of steady buying that contradicts Trump’s story of a Biden-era drought.
Farmers’ real experience: tariffs, bailouts and political spin
For growers on the ground, the political back-and-forth over who “lost” or “won back” China often feels disconnected from the daily grind of managing risk. During the height of the trade war, Farmers caught up in the tariff fight saw prices drop as American soybean and sorghum producers, who typically export at least half of their crops, scrambled to find alternative buyers. Federal aid checks helped cushion the blow, but many producers remained worried about the long-term damage to relationships with overseas customers.
Even now, the politics around those tariffs remain contentious. One recent flap erupted when a Trump ally claimed that his trade policies had not hurt farmers, prompting headlines like Karoline Leavitt Roasted Over Blatantly False Claim on Trump Tariffs Impacting Farmers, a reminder that the pain from lost sales and emergency bailouts is still fresh. When I talk to growers, they tend to remember the checks, but they also remember the bins full of unsold beans and the uncertainty about whether their biggest customer would come back.
A pattern of exaggeration collides with hard numbers
Trump’s soybean narrative also fits into a broader pattern in which his most confident assertions often collide with verifiable facts. Years ago, a detailed fact check cataloged Falsehoods Just From Trump, noting that one figure he cited was actually 65 percent and that Donald Trump had misstated basic statistics during a single Thursday Night That speech. In that rundown, They also highlighted how he Still repeated claims even after they were publicly debunked, a habit that now seems to be resurfacing in his comments about soybeans and China.
The same dynamic is visible in the current debate over Biden-era farm trade. A detailed review of the soybean saga concluded that During the Biden administration, China continued buying American soybeans in significant quantities, and that it is plainly untrue to say otherwise. When I weigh that conclusion against Trump’s insistence that China stopped purchasing under Biden, the contrast between rhetoric and reality could not be sharper.
Why the truth about soybean trade still matters
There is a temptation to treat all of this as just another campaign-season skirmish, but the stakes are concrete for the people who plant and harvest the crop. In October, China and the United States discussed a framework that would keep soybean shipments flowing at tens of millions of metric tons each year through 2028, a sign that both sides still see value in the trade. For farmers in the Midwest and the South, that kind of predictability can mean the difference between investing in new equipment and putting off repairs for another season.
When Trump insists that China abandoned the market under Biden, he is not just stretching the truth, he is rewriting a story that farmers themselves lived through. The data show that Data on soybean exports, including the 108 M figure for Biden-era shipments measured in MMT, do not support his version of events, and that Trump is once again asking voters to trust his words over the ledger. For growers who depend on China’s appetite for soybeans, and for anyone who cares about honest debate over trade policy, that disconnect is more than a talking point. It is a warning about how easily political narratives can drift away from the facts that shape real lives.
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Grant Mercer covers market dynamics, business trends, and the economic forces driving growth across industries. His analysis connects macro movements with real-world implications for investors, entrepreneurs, and professionals. Through his work at The Daily Overview, Grant helps readers understand how markets function and where opportunities may emerge.
