Donald Trump came into office promising to slash Americans’ energy costs, vowing that prices for power and fuel would fall dramatically within a year. Twelve months on, the picture is more complicated: some benchmarks have eased from recent peaks, but household bills remain high and nowhere near half of what families were paying before.
Energy markets have cooled in places, yet the data show a gradual drift rather than a sudden collapse in costs. From gasoline and electricity to natural gas and global commodity benchmarks, the numbers point to modest relief, not the sweeping price reset many voters might have imagined when they heard talk of cutting energy expenses in half.
What Trump actually promised on energy affordability
Trump folded his energy pledge into a broader economic message that cast him as a cost-of-living fixer. On the campaign trail he declared that, “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods,” a sweeping promise that explicitly tied his presidency to cheaper essentials, including fuel and power. That line, recorded in an economic promises timeline, set expectations that energy prices would not just stabilize but fall sharply.
In practice, cutting energy bills in half would require a transformation of how Americans consume and pay for power. A detailed analysis of household costs notes that the average US household spent $5,530 on energy in a recent year, a figure that bundles gasoline, electricity, natural gas and other fuels into one annual burden. Halving that number would mean saving more than two thousand dollars per family, a scale of change that goes far beyond marginal tweaks to drilling permits or pipeline approvals and into deep shifts in efficiency, housing, transportation and grid investment.
Global energy benchmarks versus the “half price” rhetoric
To understand whether Trump’s promise is anywhere close to reality, I start with the broadest yardstick: global energy commodity prices. The World Bank’s Energy Price Index, listed as Energy Price Index (I:EPI), shows a current level of 83.95, down slightly from 84.28 the previous month. That tiny move, from 84.28 to 83.95, signals a market that is relatively stable rather than collapsing, and it is a long way from the kind of 50 percent reset implied by campaign rhetoric.
These global figures matter because they filter directly into what Americans pay at the pump and on their utility bills. When the Basic Info for the Energy Price Index, often shortened to EPI, shows only incremental month to month change, it undercuts the idea that presidential action alone has driven a dramatic break in the cost of oil, gas and coal. Instead, the index suggests that supply, demand and geopolitics are keeping energy prices in a narrow band, with modest year over year declines but nothing like a halving of costs.
Gasoline prices: modest relief, not a collapse
For most drivers, gasoline is the most visible test of any promise to make energy cheaper. Recent data show that Today’s average price of gas in the U.S. is $2.93 per gallon, a level described under the heading Gas Prices Decrease Today. That $2.93 figure is down $0.01 from the previous day, a tiny daily move that underscores how incremental the current easing has been. It is welcome relief compared with recent spikes, but it is not a revolution in affordability.
Longer term indicators tell a similar story of small shifts rather than a dramatic plunge. The Basic Info for the US Retail Gas Price shows a current level of 3.179, down from 3.19 last month and up from 3.175 one year ago. Those precise numbers, 3.179, 3.19 and 3.175, capture a market that has barely budged over a year. A difference of a few thousandths of a dollar per gallon is the opposite of a halving of prices, and it suggests that whatever policy shifts have occurred, they have not fundamentally rewritten the cost of gasoline for American households.
Electricity: national averages versus household reality
Electricity is the other big piece of the energy bill puzzle, and here too the data point to incremental change. The US Average Retail Price of Electricity, identified by the code I:USARPE, is tracked in the Basic Info as a single national benchmark. While the exact current cent per kilowatt hour figure is not detailed in the summary, the structure of the index and its modest year over year movement indicate that power prices have edged up or down only slightly, not fallen by half.
On the ground, residential customers are seeing that reality in their monthly statements. The average residential electricity rate in the U.S. is reported at 18.07 cents per kilowatt hour, a figure highlighted under the prompt “How much does electricity cost?” That 18.07 cent rate is far from a bargain by historical standards, and it certainly is not half of what households were paying just a few years ago. Even if some states with abundant hydropower or wind see lower local rates, the national average underscores that the promise of slashing electricity costs in half has not materialized for most families.
Looking again at the national benchmark, the US Average Retail Price of Electricity (USARPE) is described as being at a current level that is only a few percent different from one year ago. The Basic Info notes that the US Average Retail Price of Electricity is at a current level that is up 5.79% from one year ago, which means power has actually become more expensive over that span, not cheaper. For a household already paying 18.07 cents per kilowatt hour, a roughly 6 percent increase pushes bills higher, making the idea of a 50 percent cut feel even more distant.
Natural gas and the broader household energy bill
Natural gas is another crucial piece of the affordability story, especially for heating and cooking. The US Natural Gas Residential Price, labeled as I:USNGRP in the Basic Info, is reported at a current level that is up 8.15% from one year ago. That increase means that for many households, particularly in colder regions that rely heavily on gas furnaces, the cost of staying warm has risen rather than fallen under Trump’s tenure.
When I fold natural gas into the broader picture of household energy spending, the gap between rhetoric and reality widens. The same analysis that pegged average annual household energy spending at $5,530 makes clear that this total reflects not just electricity and gasoline but also Natural Gas Residential Price trends and other fuels. If gas prices are up 8.15% year over year and electricity benchmarks like USARPE are also higher, then any savings from slightly cheaper gasoline or marginally lower global commodity indices are being offset elsewhere in the family budget.
Why halving energy prices was always a stretch
Looking across these indicators, I see a consistent pattern: small moves, not seismic shifts. The Energy Price Index at 83.95 versus 84.28 a month earlier, the Retail Gas Price hovering at 3.179 compared with 3.19 and 3.175, the US Average Retail Price of Electricity rising around 5.79%, and the Natural Gas Residential Price up 8.15% all point in the same direction. Energy markets have been volatile at times, but over the past year they have settled into a range that is far removed from any notion of prices being cut in half.
That is not just a political failure, it is a structural reality. Energy systems are capital intensive and slow to change, and the average household’s $5,530 annual energy tab is the product of decades of infrastructure decisions, from suburban sprawl and car dependence to aging housing stock and underinvested grids. When Trump promised that “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again,” he was speaking to real pain, but the data on gasoline, electricity, natural gas and global benchmarks show that the levers available to any president are limited. A year into his term, Americans are still waiting for the kind of dramatic relief that would turn that promise of halved energy prices into something more than a campaign line.
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Grant Mercer covers market dynamics, business trends, and the economic forces driving growth across industries. His analysis connects macro movements with real-world implications for investors, entrepreneurs, and professionals. Through his work at The Daily Overview, Grant helps readers understand how markets function and where opportunities may emerge.
