Category: Markets and Macro

Morgan Stanley has recently highlighted a unique economic phenomenon where the American economy can simultaneously experience growth and contraction, a situation they describe as a “rolling recession.” This concept suggests that while some sectors of the economy are thriving, others are facing downturns, allowing for overall economic growth despite localized recessions. This analysis, based on…

The U.S. national debt has reached a staggering $38 trillion, marking a critical juncture in the nation’s fiscal policy. This figure translates to approximately $111,600 owed per American, highlighting the intense debates surrounding government spending and economic sustainability. Recent legislative actions have significantly contributed to this surge, raising concerns about the future financial burden on…

International enrollment at U.S. colleges is sliding at a pace that would have been hard to imagine a decade ago, and the inflection point is not subtle. After President Donald Trump’s overhaul of student visa rules, new foreign student numbers have dropped sharply, reshaping campus finances and the country’s talent pipeline in the process. I…

Gold’s blistering run has forced one of Wall Street’s most influential commodity teams to redraw its map for the next cycle. After a year in which the metal has already logged gains of more than 40% in 2025 and notched fresh records, Goldman Sachs is now projecting that the rally still has room to run…

On November 17, 2025, the Federal Reserve’s vice chair used two public appearances to stress that tradeoffs in the current economy reinforce the need to “proceed slowly” on interest-rate cuts, signaling a more cautious stance on policy easing. Later that evening, the vice chair reiterated that economic trade-offs justify lowering rates slowly, underscoring how recent…

President Donald Trump is presiding over an economy that looks sturdy on the surface but is increasingly fragile underneath. Growth headlines and stock indexes obscure a mounting pile of structural risks that top economists say are the direct result of his policy choices. From tariffs to erratic messaging, the pattern points to a White House…

Talk of a federal shutdown tends to fade once Congress cuts a deal, yet the political and structural forces that nearly close the government rarely disappear. They accumulate, like pressure behind a dam, until the next deadline brings the same arguments roaring back. That is why the latest wave of shutdown chatter feels less like…

America’s red ink is often framed as a uniquely alarming problem, but the reality is that the United States is borrowing in a world where nearly every major economy is leaning heavily on debt. To understand how serious the situation is, I need to look not only at the sheer size of U.S. obligations, but…

Holiday shoppers heading into the aisles this year are getting a rare bit of relief: the typical Thanksgiving spread is expected to be slightly cheaper overall, even as some key ingredients keep climbing. After several seasons of sticker shock, the core promise for 2025 is a modestly lower grocery bill if you are willing to…

Grocery shoppers are still feeling the sting of higher prices, even as overall inflation cools. The latest research points to a handful of everyday staples that are doing outsized damage to family budgets, driven by supply constraints, corporate pricing power, and shifting consumer demand. I want to unpack five of the biggest culprits and explain…