Category: Markets and Macro

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has now said out loud what many economists have argued for years: the recent burst of inflation was largely made in Washington, driven by President Donald Trump’s tariffs rather than by an overheated labor market or runaway consumer demand. His assessment reframes one of the most contentious economic debates of…

The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates three times this year, but the loudest warning from one top economist is not about what has happened. It is about what another round of cuts would say about where the economy is heading. If policymakers feel compelled to ease further, the signal would be less about…

The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates even as prices remain stubbornly high, a combination that captures how strange the current expansion feels for households and markets alike. I see an economy where inflation has cooled from its peak but is still being propped up by policy choices, especially tariffs, that keep everyday goods more…

China’s biggest technology buyers are turning away from Nvidia’s H200 artificial intelligence chip, signaling that Washington’s carefully calibrated export strategy is not playing out as planned. Instead of locking Chinese firms into a slower, U.S. controlled upgrade path, Beijing is using the opening to accelerate its own semiconductor ecosystem and blunt American leverage over its…

Prices in the United States are no longer climbing at the breakneck pace of the pandemic years, but they are not falling across the board, and they are certainly not “coming down very substantially” in the sweeping way President Donald Trump keeps telling voters. The official inflation gauges show a slower rise in costs, not…

Wall Street is enjoying record stock prices even as a growing chorus of strategists warns that the next decade could look far less generous for investors. The fear is not of an imminent crash, but of a grinding period in which inflation, interest rates and slower growth quietly erode returns and leave index investors treading…

Elon Musk is reassessing one of his most high-profile political experiments, conceding that the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, delivered only modest gains and is not a model he wants to repeat. His shift in tone marks a rare public admission that his aggressive push to streamline Washington under President Donald Trump has not…

The people who work closest to the president help shape everything from foreign policy to the wording of a State of the Union, and their paychecks reflect just how valuable that work is considered inside the West Wing. The highest earners on the White House payroll now take home salaries that rival top posts in…

President Donald Trump has been touting what he calls an “A+++++” economy, casting the current expansion as a historic triumph that voters simply fail to appreciate. Economist Paul Krugman is not buying it, arguing that the headline numbers mask deeper fragilities and that the self-congratulatory grading ignores who is actually feeling the strain. In a…

Donald Trump has claimed that China stopped buying American soybeans during Joe Biden’s presidency, casting himself as the only leader who could reopen that market. The trade data tell a very different story, showing steady Chinese demand and, in key years, larger shipments under Biden than during Trump’s first term. The gap between the rhetoric…